Mentality and Vibes: Analysis of Egypt and their 2021 AFCON run
Can you make a continental final solely with a good mentality and vibes?
Egypt certainly proved that it was possible when they made the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations Final.
Going into the tournament, the seven-time AFCON champions were seen as a shadow of the team’s golden generation from the 2000s.
In fact, ever since that generation won three AFCONs in a row, Egypt’s national team have been in a bit of disarray.
So, when this year’s AFCON came along, only three months after new manager Carlos Queiroz had come in, no one had high hopes for Egypt.
It was a team that was perceived as having one star player, a few veterans who had overstayed their welcome, youngsters with little experience playing on the national team, and as a mentally weak side who didn’t know how to win.
But what we saw was a revitalised Egypt.
So, how did they do it?
Defensive Structure
Teams that do not have the personnel to play an attractive, dynamic, and an attacking style of football usually play one of two ways.
They either do not care that they lack the players to play the way they want. Instead, they just pretend that they have the capabilities of playing tiki-taka football for the full 90 minutes (I’m looking at you, Ethiopia).
Or they just stick to the safer option: a deep defensive structure.
That was Egypt, at this AFCON, in a nutshell.
The Pharaohs spent most of the tournament choosing to sit in deep and defend, breaking into a counterattack occasionally.
And as uninspiring as it was, it worked.
During AFCON, Egypt conceded 0.24 goals per 90 minutes, the second-lowest average in the competition, with the finalists only being beaten by Mali, who also played three matches less.
Egypt’s deep defensive structure additionally saw them give up an average of seven shots per 90 in the knockout rounds, the third-best of the entire tournament, and an improvement on their 11.6 shots from the group stages. The team also recorded the highest number of interceptions per 90, with an average of 11.4.
No one can argue that Egypt had the more difficult road to the final than Senegal. Not that it actually matters, but it is impressive that the team kept clean sheets against Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon, the former being a team that scored three past defending champions, Algeria, and the latter having the top two goal scorers of the tournament.
And it becomes even more impressive when you think about the personnel in Egypt’s backline.
Before the tournament, there were no questions about the fact that it would be Ahmed Hegazi slotting into the right centre-back role, while Mohamed El Shenawy would be the man between the sticks. Despite Egypt’s struggles over the past few years, the two have been bright spots within the national team.
However, both were injured in the knock-out rounds, and considering Egypt’s reliance on their defensive structure, their injuries were a major cause for concern.
Enter Mohamed Abdelmonem.
Many Egyptians wouldn’t have even known his name before the tournament. The 23-year-old is an Al-Ahly player, but has yet to make a single appearance for the Egyptian giants. Just last season, he played in Egypt’s Second Division, with Future FC, a club that would earn promotion for the first time in their history.
Averaging three clearances, and four winning possession tackles per 90, he played a central role to Egypt conceding zero goals from open play whilst he was on the pitch (Egypt’s first group match against Nigeria, where Abdelmonem was on the bench, was the only game in which Egypt conceded a non-penalty goal).
Egypt has always had some decent luck when it comes to goalkeepers, and the AFCON tournament really proved that.
El Shenaway’s replacement, 33-year-old Mohamed Abou Gabal, also known as Gabaski, had three appearances for Egypt prior to AFCON. He also had been demoted to second keeper at his club Zamalek, prior to the competition.
Not something that fills you with a lot of confidence.
Nonetheless, he delivered, making crucial saves in big moments, organizing his backline, and coming up big in penalty shootouts.
https://twitter.com/SkyFootball/status/1490432877200351236
It’s easy to see Gabaski’s quality when we look at how many goals he actually prevented.
Clean sheets, and saves made are great statistics, but they can often be skewed in favour of more defensive-minded teams (e.g. Egypt having more clean sheets in the tournament than Cameroon is primarily because of Cameroon’s more attacking style of play, which left them more vulnerable in the back).
The best way to figure out how a keeper was directly involved in preventing goals is by looking at expected goals on target (xGOT), which measures the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal, based on both the underlying chance quality (xG) and the end location of the shot within the goal.
Given that xGOT measures the probability an on-target shot results in a goal, the only factor preventing them being scored is the goalkeeper, which means the stat can be used to credit keepers for their ability to prevent goals, regardless of their team’s defensive style of play.
At AFCON, Gabaski prevented three goals based on his xGOT, a stat that only one keeper bettered throughout the competition: his fellow countryman El Shenaway, who prevented 3.30 goals before his tournament was cut short.
Gabaski conceded the one penalty against Morocco during normal time, and was crucial in Egypt’s advancement throughout the tournament. He even won man of the match in the final, despite the loss.
https://twitter.com/CAF_Online/status/1490464333926653952
They could have waited until after he stopped crying to snap the picture, but it’s fine.
Egypt in Midfield
So, Egypt’s deep defensive structure, along with some individual brilliance from players, worked.
Great.
It was pretty much the only thing that worked for the team, though.
This is where the AFCON vibes come in.
Because it has been a week after the conclusion of the tournament, and I’m still confused as to what Egypt’s overall plan was whilst in possession.
We’ll start with the midfield.
Egypt’s midfield certainly lacked dynamism and versatility.
A problem that Egypt have had since the likes of Mohamed Aboutrika, Ahmed Hassan, and Mohamed Shawky retired.
Mohamed Elneny’s passing stats seem to always trend on Twitter every few months, with the Arsenal midfielder having the second-best passing efficiency in the Premier League from the past 12 years.
Let’s ignore the fact that questions should genuinely be asked about every midfielder below him on that list, and remember that statistics can be selective. What those passing stats do not show is that Elneny, along with, Abdullah Said, Hamdi Fathy, and Amr El Solia, the players that featured the most in Egypt’s midfield during this AFCON tournament, were all incredibly passive when on the ball.
The four of them had a total of 11 chances created, zero shot ending carries, and one carry that ended in a chance.
That’s for the entirety of the tournament.
Longterm, Queiroz needs to find a midfield three that are much more dynamic if he wants this side to build upon their strengths defensively.
Elneny had a pass completion of 90% though, in case you were wondering.
Like I said, no plan, just vibes.
Egypt in Attack
Egypt has one of the best players in the world at the moment.
Mohamed Salah didn’t have an amazing tournament, but he very much carried Egypt’s offense.
He led the team in most shots (17), most shots on target (eight), most shot-ending carries (five), most shot ending sequences (40), and most goal-ending sequences (three).
He also created the most chances out of everyone in the whole tournament, with 14, one more than Sadio Mané.
https://twitter.com/SkyFootball/status/1487836571139248129
Unfortunately, his finishing wasn’t at its best.
Salah is known for being a goal scorer that takes a high number of shots, anyway. Putting him in a defensive-minded team that doesn’t create much was never going to bode well.
Alongside him, as a number nine, was Mostafa Mohamed who was often playing deeper to try and get Salah closer to the goal, a role that’s hard to master for a player who has primarily been deployed as a target man throughout his career.
And then there is Omar Marmoush.
The youngster, who plays for VfB Stuttgart on loan from VfL Wolfsburg, was majorly hyped up prior to the tournament.
He has impressed in the Bundesliga, and with only three national team apps to his name prior to AFCON, this was his time to shine.
https://twitter.com/SkyFootball/status/1486373545517146114
Sadly, the only thing he has to show for this tournament is a nutmeg against Collins Fai in the semi-final, which was shared about 100 times on my Twitter timeline.
Egypt will likely never have a goalscorer as talented as Salah, so in order to maximise his output, something needs to be done to ensure that he’s not carrying the weight of the teams’ attack.
Super Subs
People can talk all they want about how Egypt were unworthy finalists, but we were bringing on Zizo and Trezeguet from the bench in every match.
We’re basically the France 1998 team, reincarnated.
Without the trophy.
But seriously, part of what made this AFCON run so successful for Egypt is how they disrupted the flow of their opponents.
And having some fresh legs to throw everything at teams that were frustrated by not breaking through was all part of the plan.
It especially helps when you’re going to penalties every other game and you’re bringing on an elite pen taker.
https://twitter.com/King_Fut/status/1486976566689157121
Takeaways for Egypt
It’s impressive that Queiroz has been able to find what this Egypt team excels at, and has maximised it, especially in the short time that he’s been in charge.
Two weeks on, the pain of Egypt’s loss will have subsided for most fans.
But now there are expectations, and if Egypt are to build on the success of this tournament, they can’t rely on a somewhat solid defence, a lacklustre midfield and attack, and a strong state of mind. It’s not a sustainable plan.
Unfortunately, the World Cup qualifiers are next month, so there is not much time to make major tactical adjustments.
Let’s hope that whatever was happening in Cameroon (I still haven’t made sense of it) carries on against Egypt’s second and third matchup against Senegal (Mané, please let us have this one).
And hey, at least Algeria didn’t win back-to-back trophies. That’s basically a win in my book.
