NFL Conference Championship round preview: can Jayden Daniels become the first rookie QB to reach a Super Bowl?
And then there were four. The NFL has reached the Conference Championship round, effectively the semi-finals, and there are plenty of storylines to watch as the remaining teams look for just one more win to reach the Super Bowl in New Orleans.
In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs continue to chase an unprecedented third Super Bowl victory in a row. Standing in the way of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are a familiar foe, as they come up against the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years.
The Mahomes-Allen rivalry has quickly become the defining quarterback duel in the NFL this decade, but Mahomes has won all three playoff matchups so far. The Chiefs have added to a long history of Buffalo playoff misery, with Tyler Bass missing a late field goal in a 27-24 defeat in the divisional round last year.
And who could forget their astonishing meeting in the divisional round of the 2021 season, which the Chiefs won 42-36 in overtime in one of the greatest playoff games of all time, after they trailed 36-33 with just thirteen seconds of regular time left.
The NFC title game sees the upstart Washington Commanders and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to the showpiece event, but after stunning the number one seed Detroit Lions last weekend, some are starting to believe this could be a fairytale year.
However, will Saquon Barkley and the Eagles O-line just prove too powerful for Washington? There has been a lot of noise surrounding the team, as ever in Philadelphia, but they appear to have a championship-winning formula in place. The big question mark surrounds the fitness of quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Let’s dive into a deeper analysis of the two games.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Sunday 4.30pm ET (11.30pm GMT)
There is a sense of inevitability about the Chiefs this year as they look to become the first ever team to win the Super Bowl three times in a row. They are in the AFC Championship game for a remarkable seventh straight year, after beating the Houston Texans 23-14 in the divisional round.
The Chiefs had a 15-2 record in the regular season but were unconvincing at times, winning eleven of those games by one score. There is something to be said for the mentality of a team willing to grind out tough wins, but the offense is not the all-conquering force that it once was.
Mahomes threw for 3,928 passing yards in the regular season, his lowest total since he became the full-time starter in 2018, with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The Chiefs ranked 16th for total offense (327.6 yards per game) and 15th in points per game (22.6).
There have also been signs of a slowdown from superstar tight end Travis Kelce, who had 823 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns in the regular season, both career lows since he entered the league.
However, this all goes out the window when it comes to the Chiefs in the playoffs. Mahomes now has an astonishing record of 16-3 in the postseason, and last week his telepathic connection with Kelce in the playoffs was reignited.
Kelce had 117 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Texans, his ninth playoff game of over 100 yards, and he now holds the all-time record for most playoff catches with 156. The Bills will be hoping they can keep him in check again, after holding him to just two catches for 8 yards in their regular season encounter.
In any case, it has been the Chiefs defense, led by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, that has been the backbone of their wins this season, ranking 4th in points per game (19.2) and 9th in total yards (320.6).
That unit was key again in their win over the Texans, holding them to 14 points and sacking Texans quarterback CJ Stroud eight times, with defensive end George Karlaftis accounting for three of those and Chris Jones an ever-present menace.
They will have a tough time keeping Josh Allen in check, though. The MVP candidate rushed for two touchdowns in their 27-25 win over the Baltimore Ravens, even though he threw for just 127 yards.
The dual-threat quarterback has cut back significantly on mistakes from previous years, throwing just six interceptions this season, perhaps at the expense of a more explosive offense.
If not explosive, the Bills offense has certainly been efficient. Allen accounted for 40 touchdowns in the regular season – 28 passing, 12 rushing – and Buffalo ranked 2nd in points per game (30.9).
This has been built on a strong rushing attack, led by third-year running back James Cook, who had 1,267 scrimmage yards and 18 total touchdowns in the regular season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
The Bills will be hoping to flip the script on the Chiefs in the playoffs, having won their last four regular season matchups, including a 30-21 win in Week 11. Allen sealed that win with a sensational touchdown run, and it was the only game this season where the Chiefs failed to register a sack.
Buffalo’s weakness may be its pass defense, which is not where you want to be against Mahomes. The Bills ranked 24th in passing yards allowed (226.1 per game), and are without starting safety Taylor Rapp for this game. Cornerback Christian Benford is also questionable to play.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Sunday 3pm ET (8pm GMT)
One year ago, the Washington Commanders were coming off a disappointing 4-13 season and fired head coach Ron Rivera. They hired Dan Quinn as head coach and selected quarterback Jayden Daniels with the 2nd pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, and the results have been remarkable.
They finished 12-5 and clinched a spot in the playoffs, with numerous thrilling comebacks along the way, most memorably when Daniels threw a scarcely believable Hail Mary against the Chicago Bears in an 18-15 win.
What has been most impressive about the rookie out of LSU has been his poise in critical situations: he threw 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter or overtime during the regular season. One of those was in a 36-33 Week 16 win over the Eagles.
Daniels set rookie records for rushing yards for a quarterback (891) and pass completion percentage (69%), finishing with 3,568 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns to 9 interceptions, as well as 6 rushing touchdowns. He is the overwhelming favourite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
However, in the postseason he has elevated himself into discussions of the best rookies of all-time. First, he led his team to yet another fourth-quarter win in the wildcard round, defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 on the road for Washington’s first playoff victory since 2005.
Then, the Commanders pulled off a stunning upset against the number one seed Detroit Lions, winning 45-31 in an offensive masterclass. Daniels was unflappable, throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns, as well as rushing for another 51 yards.
They will need another heroic performance from him if he is to be the first rookie quarterback to reach the Super Bowl. Standing in their way is a juggernaut, and one that they know well as they reside in the same division. The Eagles and Commanders split their regular season matches one apiece.
It being the third meeting between the teams this year adds an extra layer of intrigue, but on paper there are several favourable matchups that Philadelphia can look to exploit. Not least, Saquon Barkley against the Commanders’ questionable run defense. With quarterback Jalen Hurts nursing a knee injury and unlikely to be 100%, it makes the running back an even bigger feature than usual.
Barkley recorded an all-time great regular season, rushing for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns, including 296 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Commanders. They simply have to stop Saquon to have a slight chance of reaching the Super Bowl.
The signs are not too encouraging, with Barkley rushing for 324 yards and two touchdowns in playoff wins against the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams.
Washington’s defense ranked 29th against the run in the regular season, allowing 137 yards per game. This has actually increased in the playoffs to 151 yards per game, and Jahmyr Gibbs was averaging 7.5 yards per carry last week before the Lions abandoned the run. It does not help the Commanders’ cause that defensive tackle Daron Payne has been ruled out of Sunday’s game.
The Eagles have arguably the most stacked roster remaining of the four playoff teams. In front of Barkley is one of the league’s best offensive lines, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are one of the best wide receiver duos around and they have the number one ranked total defense.
Their 278.4 yards allowed per game is over 30 yards fewer than the next best, and they rank 2nd in points allowed per game (17.8). Linebacker Nakobe Dean is out with a knee injury, but the defense still features Defensive Player of the Year nominee Zack Baun and a shutdown secondary including Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean and CJ Gardner-Johnson.
They will look to limit Commanders WR Terry McLaurin, who has 15 total touchdowns this season including the playoffs and is Washington’s one true playmaker on offense outside of Daniels. The Eagles held him to 70 yards and one touchdown over the two regular season meetings.
Defensive tackle Jalen Carter has the potential to wreck any game, and showed it during the 28-22 win over the Rams, notching two sacks including a crucial one in the final two minutes as Matthew Stafford threatened to steal the game. That makes the news of right guard Sam Cosmi’s ACL tear even worse for Washington, as he would have lined up against Carter.
On offense, expect the Commanders to be extremely aggressive on 4th down again. It has become a signature of their team and they have been remarkably successful, converting 20/23 attempts (87%) in the regular season, in large part down to Daniels being able to throw or run the ball.
They converted 3 out of 4 attempts against the Lions, and had a crucial fourth-quarter touchdown to McLaurin on 4th down against the Bucs. It is perhaps an area they can look to exploit: Philadelphia had a defensive 4th down success rate of just 36.7%, allowing teams to convert 19 out of 30 times against them for a first down.
Predictions
It’s very difficult to look past the history and go against Mahomes in the playoffs. The Chiefs seem to flick a switch in the postseason, and although they are the ones chasing a three-peat, there is arguably even more pressure on Josh Allen and the Bills to prove that they can overcome that hurdle and reach the Super Bowl.
The Commanders have had a magical run, but these big games are won in the trenches and the Eagles have a significant advantage on both sides of the ball. If they do not complicate it and continually hand the ball to Saquon Barkley, it is difficult to see how Philadelphia loses. However, there is undeniably a feeling of something special brewing with Jayden Daniels in Washington.
