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What does the 2021 Epsom Derby tells us in terms of data?

On Saturday 5th June 2021, the 242nd Epsom Derby was staged producing an unexpected result for punters.

Adayar, ridden by Adam Kirby and trained by Charlie Appleby for owners Godolphin were victorious on a scorching day at Epsom.

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This was Godolphin’s  and Appleby’s second Derby victory after winning the prestigious race in 2018 with Masar.

It was also a huge result for Kirby who had lost the ride on the Ed Dunlop trained John Leeper earlier in the week.

The Aidan O’Brien trained Bolshoi Ballet who was pre-race favourite finished a disappointing seventh for which it was revealed after that he suffered a cut on his hind legs.

But what does the 242nd running of the Derby tell us in terms of data?

The Draw

The draw is crucial to a horse in the Epsom Derby and what stall they are placed in. The stalls were first introduced to the Derby in 1967.

When the draws were made on the Thursday before the race, Adayar was drawn in stall one. This stall has dashed many hopes in the past including Ballydoyle’s Saxon Warrior in 2018 who was a short priced favourite going into the race after his win in the 2,000 Guineas a few weeks beforehand.

But when given the draw of stall one, he floundered at the start and could only finish a laboured fourth.

Saturday’s victory for Adayar was even more remarkable because of his draw. This was the first time since 1999 that a horse drawn from stall one had won the Derby.  That year saw the Henry Cecil trained Oath, ridden by Kieran Fallon, coming from stall one in a 16-runner field.

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Stall ten is referred to as the lucky draw with ten previous Derby winners  coming from that stall to win including the legendary Galileo who stormed to victory for Ballydoyle in 2001.

This time around, the Richard Hannon trained outsider Mojo Star was handed that stall and finished second at odds of 80/1.

So the draw is crucial to a horse’s chances but  Adayar flew in the face of tradition to go on a win from a stall which had always been considered a red herring.

The Time

 Adayar’s win came in at 2:36.85. Compared to last year’s Derby when the runaway winner Serpentine recorded victory in a time of 2:34.43.

This indicates that Adayar’s win was a little slower than Serpentine’s win a year ago. The Aidan O’Brien trained colt’s victory was on Good ground with the main difference being that the race was run in July in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Running the race in July was a different experience last year, given that many trials for the Derby were postponed and some parts of the course would have been dried out from the rain that can come during the summer months.

Epsom’s going on Derby Day was Good to Soft with rain falling on the Epsom Downs a few days beforehand.

The course record at Epsom in the Derby was set by Workforce in 2010 who won in a remarkably quick time of 2:31.33 on Good to Firm ground.

Since then, the only horse that has come close to recording as strong a time is Golden Horn in 2015 with a time of 2:32.32. Like Workforce’s victory in 2010, the going on that day was Good to Firm.

It indicates that on Good to Firm going, there are quicker times recorded and with the last two Derby’s run on Good, Good to Soft ground, this year’s Derby was six seconds slower than the record time that was put up by Workforce in 2010.

The Sectionals 

The sectionals are also an excellent indication of how a horse quickens over each furlong. The Derby is run over one mile and four furlongs (12 furlongs in total).

Within the final furlong, Adayar was the only horse that went under 12 seconds recording a time of 11.96.

The even more remarkable fact from Adayar’s win was that he managed to record the same time within the tenth and eleventh furlong with a consistent time of 11.38.

The sectionals are recorded from five furlongs onwards. Adayar’s win on Good to Soft going, illustrates that his Derby success was strong form indeed. 

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Whilst many will see this year’s Epsom Derby as somewhat of a  freak result, the sectionals for Adayar indicate that he was a worthy winner of the race that was strongly run from the very beginning.

It will be intriguing to see where Adayar goes from here with the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July a possibility.

 

Author

  • Myles McDevitt

    Myles, 22 hails from Cheltenham where his passions are rugby union and horse racing. Myles studied an undergraduate degree in Multimedia Sports Journalism at UCFB Wembley. He has had previous written work published for Sportsvibe, GiveMeSport and Gloucestershire Live.