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What is Wrong with FC Bayern Munich?

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Something strange is happening in Germany. FC Bayern Munich sit third in the table after nine games with minnows 1. FC Union Berlin four points clear in the top spot. The Bavarians have only earned seven points out of 18 in their last six league games.

The poor start has led to Julian Nagelsmann coming under pressure in the press. So, what’s behind Der FCB’s poor start?

What Do the Stats Say?

Attack

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Well, to begin with, let’s look at Expected Goals (xG). Bayern have been outstanding going forward this season. Not only have they accrued the most xG this season with 21.98, but they have outperformed this number by scoring 25 goals, five more than any other team.

This shows that Munich are creating and converting many quality chances and opportunities you wouldn’t expect them to take. Furthermore, Munich dominate possession, averaging 67% possession in all competitions this season, a stat which should mean they keep their opposition out of the game.

Teams that create this many chances are rarely kept off the top of the table for very long. Especially a squad as strong as FC Bayern Munich’s boasting talents like Jamal Musiala, Sadio Mane and Leroy Sane, performing at or above their xG.

Musiala is the standout of the three. The 19-year-old has nine goal involvements in eight appearances for Bayern in the Bundesliga and is outperforming both his xG and xA by double.

With such evident talent going forward, therefore, FC Bayern Munich’s issues must be in the defensive third.

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Defence

Perhaps surprisingly, considering their league position and the number of goals they score, the surface-level statistics suggest that Der FCB are brilliant defensively.

They have only conceded eight goals in the league, which is less than their Expected Goals Against (xGA). Again, this suggests Bayern have the talent to prevent goals from chances at a better rate than usual.

Looking a bit deeper, however, their defensive statistics begin to break down. Take Munich’s starting centre-backs Dayot Upamecano and Matthijs de Ligt. They get dribbled past a lot.

Upamecano gets beaten 0.68 times per 90, just above the bottom quarter of all centre-backs in Europe’s top 5 leagues. Similarly, de Ligt only tackles 52% of the players that attack him on the dribble, which is in the bottom 40% across the top 5 leagues.
Defending the ball carrier is also a problem for starting left-back Alphonso Davies, who is dribbled past 1.06 times per 90.

Additionally, he only tackles 41.7% of the players that dribble at him, which ranks him in the bottom third and quarter of fullbacks across Europe’s top 5 leagues, respectively.

As well as this, Lucas Hernandez, who would typically start ahead of de Ligt, is out injured torn adductor that will keep him out for several weeks. His injury will further affect der FCB’s backline, as he tends to act as a leader among his younger defensive partners.

How do These Stats Convert to The Pitch?

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The inability to tackle dribblers has created a recurring issue for Munich.

On numerous occasions, Bayern have conceded goals from positions of strength. The side has dominated the ball and the goal-scoring opportunities regularly but managed to give up their lead in games due to poor defensive discipline.

The recent derby against Borussia Dortmund is a prime example of this. Bayern dominated large swathes of the game, especially early in the second half when they scored their second goal.

After that, however, Munich took their foot off the gas. This allowed Dortmund back into the game, and Munich conceded two late goals from breakaways via Youssoufa Moukoko and Anthony Modeste.

The reasons for Bayern’s defensive frailties could be numerous. For example, Hasan Salihamidžić, Bayern’s Sporting Director, told SB Nation, “If we don’t show the discipline, greed and physicality, it won’t be anything. [There’s] no excuses, now victories have to come.”

On top of the lack of physicality, Bayern’s problems could also stem from their system.

Munich’s XI push very high up the field when attacking, meaning their central defenders are responsible for stopping their opposition when they hit der FCB on the break.

This is problematic as it puts a lot of pressure on the tackling abilities of those players when running backwards. Unfortunately, as the stats section shows, neither de Ligt nor Upamecano are doing this well in this campaign.

This means a tactical change might be needed to cover the young centre-backs, possibly dropping one of Marcel Sabitzer, Leon Goretzka or Joshua Kimmich deeper to plug any gaps between or beside the defenders, as appeared in Der Klassiker.

Ultimately, there is no doubt that FC Bayern Munich should win the league this year. Talent can only get you so far, however, and recent performances suggest that, due to their youth, the Bavarians lack a bit of leadership defensively.

In any case, Julian Nagelsmann has his work cut out to turn Bayern’s results around. He won’t be at the Allianz Arena long if he doesn’t.

 

Author

  • Alexander Reed

    Alex Reed is a 22-year-old Football, Rugby and Combat Sports writer. He is the host of Sports Gazette's Champagne Football Podcast and a contributor to the World Cup Daily podcast.