A blessing in disguise for Arsenal?

As Arsenal succumbed to their first ever Emirates penalty shootout defeat last night the reaction was decidedly mixed, with ‘blessing in disguise’ becoming the phrase-du-jour in the press box.

In fact, The Guardian, BBC Sport, The Telegraph and The Mirror all referenced the Gunners’ title challenge either in their headlines or intros. And people bemoan a lack of creativity in the sports media industry?!

Yet, is this a reality? You also hear of teams springboarding league challenges off the back of cup runs. Other sides will suffer a defeat in one competition and the resultant ‘crisis of confidence’ then derails the domestic title charge.

So what has been the truth over the Premier League’s recent history? Do we just use outcome bias to wrap the stories of the season’s winners and losers in the most alluring narrative blanket? Of course not, that’s not how journalism works!

Let’s look at the data of the past 20 years:

The historical context

Statistically speaking Arteta’s men may have made a shrewd decision in sidestepping the latter rounds of this season’s Europa League – the most common exit point for Premier League winners has indeed been the Round of 16. 

Which makes you wonder why they even seemed to be trying so hard last night, as six of the Premier League’s last 20 winners have all fallen at this hurdle, the most recent being Liverpool in 2020 as they went on to end their own barren domestic title run.

However, are we drawing too much of a conclusion from this figure? Half of title winners since 2002 did progress to the Quarter Finals or further, with Man City’s Semi Final exertions last season representing clear evidence that it can be possible to have more gas in the tank for European travel while also cruising to domestic success.

The reality, surely, is that it depends specifically on the components of the team in question. To maintain simultaneous runs domestically and continentally you need a deep squad, a good injury record and a relentless winning mentality that feeds off each result.

On the flip side, it takes a strong team cohesion, often aided by having a smaller squad and a ‘never-say-die’ attitude to be able to bounce back from the sort of disappointment Arsenal suffered against Sporting.

The Squad

Firstly, let’s have a look at that squad: Arsenal have used 25 players in the league this season which is the fifth fewest of all teams.

Considering this is now the only competition remaining for the North Londoners, this smaller roster may be a positive – fewer players vying for minutes on the pitch means fewer dramatic pans to star player X sulking on a rain-soaked bench as they go 1-0 down away to Bournemouth.

However, even more noteworthy is Manchester City sitting at the bottom, with only 22 players featuring, three fewer than any other club.

Factor in that they’re continuing to compete in the Champions League and FA Cup as well, a few injuries in the wrong position may see Pep relying on players he clearly hasn’t trusted thus far.

Yet, the Citizens manager will take heart from the fact that his side have had the second fewest injury headaches this season as their medical team and training regimes appear to be working in perfect cohesion, according to figures from PlanetFootball.

For their part, Arsenal sit a respectable 14th with a healthy record for the campaign, but their hopes will surely remain that City’s luck turns rotten sooner rather than later.

The Mentality

Now we move more into the abstract- the mentality and desire of the team.

Looking at their xRKMOE (Expected Richard Keys Meltdowns for Over Exuberance) figures for this season, the Gunners are miles ahead of the pack. Keys, who currently works in Doha and stays relevant by talking over his guests on Qatar’s state TV, has found reason to criticise Arsenal’s exuberance on no fewer than three occasions this season.

And while this may be a tongue in cheek metric, there can be no doubt that it’s always ‘those sorts of teams’, the ones that just seem to rub people up the wrong way, who have the strength of character to get over the line.

Be it Fergie’s endless mind games causing title rivals to fall over themselves in press conferences or Mourinho’s ability to foster an ‘us against the world’ mentality inside the dressing room, there does seem to be an intangible benefit in riling up critics.

Bouncebackability is one way to attempt to measure that immeasurable ‘never say die attitude’ and again, Arsenal score well in this regard. They have earned the most points from losing positions this season at 15, coming back to win five matches from eight giving them a 62.5% win rate after going behind.

Comparatively, Man City have gone behind on one fewer occasion, but have only picked up seven points from such games, winning two and drawing one to give them a win rate of only 29% from losing positions.

What does it all mean? Are we officially crowning Arsenal as the champions of the Premier League 2022/23 season? 

That might be a stretch, but looking at the data from previous winners in conjunction with the make-up of the squad and the mentality that seems to run through the Highbury hivemind, it does appear that Arsenal, with the distractions of the Europa League removed, may just be one step closer to clinching a first title in 19 years.