Texas Rangers: Building a winning side
Since divisional victories in the 2015 and 2016 Major League Baseball seasons, there has been little to celebrate for the Texas Rangers.
Exiting the postseason at the earliest possible stage in both those years, the six seasons since have seen misery heaped upon the North Texas side.
Never higher than third, a spot they occupied just once, half of their seasons since have seen them rooted to the bottom of the five-team American League West, with 2021’s 102 losses their most since 1973.
In the present day, however, the 2023 Rangers have been something of a revelation.
Second in winning percentage across the entire MLB, behind only the Tampa Bay Rays, the Globe Life Field-based team have 35 wins and just 19 losses in the opening third of the season, putting them on course for an unbelievable 105 wins — the franchise record is 96, from 2011.
The Rangers ditched manager Chris Woodward for three-time World Series winner Bruce Bochy ahead of this season, but a managerial change is not enough to explain their vast turnaround in fortunes.
With success in all areas needed to succeed at the top level of the sport, what exactly does it take to put together one of the best teams in baseball?
Drafting Success
The MLB draft lacks the glitz and glamour of its basketball and American football counterparts, largely because most prospects take at least three years to make it to the major leagues.
Whilst an NBA first rounder can make an immediate impact, baseball players drafted in the opening round are only expected to make it into the MLB 66% of the time, often after being shuffled around multiple teams.
This makes it all the more impressive that the Rangers’ 2023 squad features three of their first-round picks since 2016.
Their choice from that year, Cole Ragans, has featured consistently as a relief pitcher, while fastest man in the league Bubba Thompson is a regular in the outfield rotation.
Most notable, however, is 2019’s eighth overall pick, Josh Jung.
The former Texas Tech man has featured in all but three of the Rangers’ games this season at third base, and the Arlington-based side finally look as though they have filled the gaping hole left after the 2018 retirement of Rangers Hall of Famer Adrián Beltré.
A statistical powerhouse, Jung is ranked in the top 10 in the league in both total bases (107) and runs scored (39), while his .978 fielding percentage places him fifth among major league third basemen this season, having only made his debut in early September last year.
As for those first round picks not yet at major league level, 2018 selection Cole Winn is now a regular starter one level below the majors, with Davis Wendzel (2019) and Justin Foscue (2020) regularly occupying infield spots alongside him at AAA-level side Round Rock Express.
Jack Leiter, the Rangers’ 2021 first rounder, is currently pitching at AA level, two below the majors, and is well-placed on a MLB’s list of prospects that contains six Rangers players, including 2020 second rounder and outfielder Evan Carter, the ninth-ranked prospect in all of baseball.
Acquiring Talent
Outside of the farm system, much of the current Rangers roster has been put together through major statements of intent in the free agent market.
On December 1, 2021, the Rangers penned a vast seven-year, $175 million deal with Marcus Semien, who had recently finished third in American League MVP voting.
A shortstop for much of his career, the Rangers had been attracted by the All-Star’s 2021 move to second base, which had seen him win the American League Golden Glove and Silver Slugger awards.
Semien’s positional change allowed them to make their second major move, a 10-year, $325 million contract with shortstop Corey Seager.
The signings had generated 24.6 wins above replacement (WAR) across the previous three seasons for their respective teams — suggesting that having them together in Texas could be worth 8.2 wins over the following 2022 season.
Further moves that offseason for starting pitchers Jon Gray (four years, $56m), and Martín Pérez (one year, $4m) shored up a Rangers lineup that had lacked depth for some time, star starters Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn all long since traded away for prospects.
Securing Starting Pitching
The 2022 season saw the Rangers eke value out of their marquee signings, Semien playing all but one of the Rangers’ games as he led the major leagues in plate appearances and at bats for 5.7 WAR, the third-best season of his career.
Alongside him on the infield was Seager, putting together an All-Star season at shortstop as he generated 3.9 WAR, while pitcher Pérez’s 196.1 innings pitched placed him tenth in the MLB as he had a career-best year at the team that had given him his major league debut.
Despite these contributions, the Rangers proved leaky with the ball in hand, conceding 4.59 runs per game on the way to the seventh-worst pitching display in the major leagues that season when looking at Adjusted Earned Run Average (ERA+).
With this in mind, the Rangers backroom looked for major pitching improvements in 2022 free agency.
So keen were the Arlington side to keep Martín Pérez after his bumper year, they granted him a qualifying offer worth $19.65m — more than treble his previous highest single-season salary.
Joining Pérez and Gray in the rotation were Jacob de Grom (five years, $185 million) and Nathan Eovaldi (two years, $34 million), that year’s third- and fourth-most valuable pitching free agents at 9.2 and 7.1 WAR in the past three years respectively.
Completing the five-man starting rotation was Andrew Heaney, the 32-year-old coming off the best season of his career at the Los Angeles Dodgers, as the Rangers also inked a deal with closer Will Smith.
Starting Strong
In the 2023 season, pitching in North Texas has gone from strength to strength.
Boasting an ERA+ of 118, the fourth-highest in the league, Rangers starting pitching is contributing 2.6 wins above average (WAA) to the team total of 7.9 WAA, second only to the Tampa Bay Rays.
With de Grom struggling with injury for part of the season, the most significant contribution has come from Eovaldi, on track for a season that would significantly better an All-Star season in 2021 that saw him place fourth in Cy Young voting.
Having pitched 74.1 innings so far, the most in the major leagues, Eovaldi’s endurance is made all the more impressive by his earned run average (ERA), conceding only 2.42 earned runs for every nine innings pitched.
Also with ERAs below 3.00 are Gray (2.81) and de Grom (2.67) , but the most impressive figures come from Dane Dunning.
Traded to the Rangers in late 2020 in the deal that saw Lance Lynn go to the White Sox, Dunning has combined starting pitching with stints in relief for an ERA of 1.67 in his 43.0 innings this year — his ERA+ of 257 has only been bettered by those with significantly less innings pitched this season.
Swinging for the Fences
Even with strong pitching, it is hard to win anything without a potent attack, and the 2023 Rangers line-up is exactly that.
Leading the MLB in runs scored, continuing at their current rate of 6.37 runs per game would see them score 1032 runs for the season, the fourth-highest for a team since the beginning of the 20th Century, and the most since the 1936 New York Yankees.
Whilst there is no shortage of power hitting in the squad, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung both inside the top 10 American League players by number of home runs, more impressive is the side’s batting average of .272 — the Rangers convert at bats into times on base better than any other side in baseball.
A testament to the quality of Rangers hitting this season is their unexceptional numbers in other metrics that contribute to offensive success.
A total of 183 walks places them squarely mid-table in the American League, while only 33 bases stolen sees them well below the league average of 39.
Despite Marcus Semien delivering an MVP-level performance at second base, generating 3.2 WAR so far this season, most impressive from the Rangers is their efficiency as a team, rather than individual quality.
Whilst 863 total bases places them second in the American League, the Rangers ensure value each time on the best by having both the second-fewest times left on base in the league (359), as well as the second-fewest times grounded into double plays (31).
