The WSL title contenders – What does the data say?

One month to the conclusion of the WSL and four teams remain in contention for the title. 

With so many frontrunners left for this final furlong, the run-in is set to be the most dramatic of the domestic football season, but how are the contenders faring? Who will drop off the pace and who will get their nose in front?

Let’s try to answer these most curious of queries with some data, courtesy of Opta and FBref.

Manchester United

Following their late Friday night win over best-of-the-rest Aston Villa, United sit top of the tree, six points clear of second, albeit having played more games than everyone else.

The league leaders are also the top scorers this season with 50, trailed by Chelsea on 42, but according to their xG they should only be the third behind City and Arsenal.

The most obvious reason for this discrepancy is superior finishing and unsurprisingly all of Leah Galton, Alessia Russo and Lucía García feature in the top 10 of the WSL when ranked by [Non Penalty] Goals – [Non Penalty] Expected Goals (np:G-xG).

However, the forwards for United aren’t just finishing their chances at a superhuman rate, the high press favoured by Marc Skinner’s side has them functioning like a well-oiled machine off the ball as well.

As we can see from Opta’s Team Sequence Pressures statistics, they allow the fewest Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA) and score the joint most goals resulting from High Turnovers.

What these statistics mean respectively is that they are allowing their opponents less time to build before attempting to win the ball back and, when they successfully regain possession, they are incisive in their attacking movements, slicing teams open on the transition to devastating effect.

Manchester City

Khadija “Bunny” Shaw. That’s it. That’s the data analysis.

Put simply, City’s number 21 has been lethal this season. She’s joint top scorer in the league with 17 goals, with Rachel Daly also on 17 and Russo some way behind on nine.

With five assists as well, Shaw’s attacking numbers are simply extraordinary, but how is she achieving the feat?

Well, as with any team from the all-conquering empire of the City Group ™ this is a Man City side that outright suffocates opponents on the pitch. Using Opta’s Team Sequence Styles graph, the sky-blue blueprint is crystal clear. Lots of passing, lots of control… Lots of chances?

That would depend on where the side is keeping the ball so slowly and intricately, and, thanks to Opta’s Zones of Control model, we’re able to identify which areas City occupy vs their opponents.

The first thing you spot is – wow that’s a lot of blue. And that’s essentially a visual representation of what we saw in Team Sequence Styles as City are keeping a lot of the ball, giving them more touches across the most zones.

This is also being seen by their title rivals, however, City are making more inroads in attacking areas, particularly down the left where Chloe Kelly is bamboozling defenders – drifting out wide, wandering into half spaces and spinning on a sixpence before, more often than not, putting the ball on Shaw’s head or right foot.

The England winger has an Expected Assists (XA) of 7.9 for the season which places her at the top of the WSL and she’ll be hoping to continue her electric from into the World Cup this Summer.

Chelsea

The bookies favourites are also the reigning champions of the past three seasons, meaning the outcome of the title is in the hands of a team of hardened winners which is a promising, albeit anecdotal, sign.

Having advanced to the latter stages of the League Cup (final), FA Cup (final) and Champions League (SF) the Blues have played the fewest matches in the league meaning that, despite their ranking, their Points Per Match (PPM) is the highest at 2.5 vs Man United’s 2.47 (after playing Villa on 28/04).

The logic of favouring the West Londoners doesn’t end there either as Chelsea’s run-in contains the fewest games against fellow title contenders, only a (home) showdown with Arsenal on the 21st of May features in their remaining fixture list.

However, playing so few games to date does mean May’s schedule looks bloated. Thursday’s merciful defeat to Barcelona in the Champions League means one fewer match, but nonetheless Chelsea have seven matches to play in 24 days – by comparison Manchester City have four in the same period.

A quick look under the bonnet and that PPM record for Emma Hayes’s side begins to look less imperious; their Expected Goal Difference (xGD) is the lowest of the top four sides meaning theoretically they should score the fewest and concede the most of any title challenging side over a given run.

If Chelsea are to defy this worrying sign then they will undoutbedly be relying on talisman Sam Kerr – the Aussie has featured in the most matches this season and has the highest combined Non-Penalty Expected Goals + Expected Assists (npxG + xA) per 90 in the squad.

Yet, it’s not just in and around the box that Kerr comes alive, the Blues also attempt and complete the most long balls in the league as the 29-year-old acts as the team’s focal point, receiving all types of passes, bringing teammates into play and, of course, setting up and scoring goals.

Arsenal

Arsenal lie in fourth and, while they could overtake City on goal difference by winning their game in hand, the positivity around the camp has been dulled after an excruciating number of injuries to key players.

First, in December, key forwards Vivienne Miedema and Beth Mead both injured their ACLs, then earlier this month captain Kim Little had her season ended with a hamstring injury.

Last weekend, just to rub salt in the wound, England skipper and centre-back playmaker Leah Williamson joined them in the burgeoning injury room with yet another ACL problem.

Replacing Arsenal’s number 6 is no mean feat – Lotte Wubben-Moy has deputised most in her absence this season and will likely do so again for the remainder of the schedule, but the data suggests that Williamson’s presence may still be sorely missed.

While the above comparison of two shows Wubben-Moy to be a very capable ball-player, Williamson is simply the best in the business for progressing the ball out of deep areas and creating chances and, with an already depleted squad, it may be a big ask for Jonas Eidevall’s side to compensate for yet another lost creative spark.

Verdict

Arsenal’s injury woes combined with their battles on Continental grounds makes their challenge appear weakest on paper. London rivals Chelsea may have their fate in their own hands with their superior PPM, but their underlying numbers combined with a heavy fixture list don’t bode well.

It looks like the title could head to Manchester for only the second time ever, with City’s typical dominant all round performances being enhanced by two standout forwards… Yet with so many points already on the board, a strong tactical plan and excellent team cohesion, I’m tipping United to hold out for a historic first WSL title.

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