Tier Two Rugby – Closing the Gap?
With the Rugby World Cup giving fans a glimpse of tier two rugby, the same quadrennial question is asked – is the gap between the tiers closing?
‘Tier one’ is defined by World Rugby as the sides playing in Europe’s Six Nations (England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales), the members of the Southern Hemisphere’s Rugby Championship (Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa), and as of earlier this year, Japan.
Sides in contention for a place at a Rugby World Cup that do not fall into the ‘tier one’ category are considered ‘tier two’.
Many tier two sides are moving towards professionalisation, with the formation of the Rugby Europe Super Cup and the spread of players into top leagues worldwide, it is not a question of whether they are improving, but rather whether they keeping up with tier one nations.
On the surface it seems that some sides certainly are, with Japan and Fiji pulling off famous scalps over traditionally stronger opposition.
Commentator Dave Rogers said: “The World Cup told us a lot about the standard of rugby. Portugal managed to beat Fiji. The fact that Fiji managed to give England and Wales hell tells us exactly how good some of these players are.”
With tier one sides often selecting a somewhat weakened line-up to play lesser-ranked opposition, and the risk of a rogue result skewing data, it can be difficult to assess the true gulf in quality between the tiers.
However, by comparing the points difference in pool stage matches between tier one and two sides at previous Rugby World Cups, it is possible to get an idea as to whether this gap is actually closing.
To preserve fairness, only results from pool-stage matches have been compared because knock-out fixtures, by their nature, do not provide the even spread of quality that is seen earlier in the tournament.
There has been a greater points difference in fixtures between tiers one and two nations in the pool stage of the ongoing 2023 Rugby World Cup than was seen in the previously in 2019 or 2015.
This year’s results are more aligned with what was seen in 2011. Tier one sides have scored an average of 50.04 points against tier two opposition at this year’s World Cup, with a winning margin of 36.54.
This is an increase of nearly a converted try from 2019. Tier two sides have only increased their scores in these fixtures by a single point.
Interestingly, the points difference in matches between tier one sides has more than doubled in the past eight years.
This has grown from 13 points in 2015, to 19.17 in 2019, and 27.3 in 2023, suggesting that there is now a larger spread of quality among the top sides.
The contest between tier two sides does appear to be improving. The points difference in tier two-only fixtures has nearly halved from 20 in 2019, to just 11.67 in 2023.
Seemingly the quality across tier two sides has improved, becoming much closer. Portugal are an example of this improvement, having claimed an impressive win over Fiji and a draw to Georgia this year. Their rise is clear, with their only previous Rugby World Cup experience coming 16 years ago, in 2007.
Portuguese rugby commentator Francisco Isaac said: “In 2015, when people tried to cut off the professional side of the game, we went down one division (relegated from the European Nations Cup First Division to the Rugby Europe Trophy).
“It was not the level that Portuguese fans had become accustomed to over the last 20 years, especially after going to a World Cup in 2007.
“After a successful World Cup in 2023, half of the people are afraid of taking things to the future. A quarter want to take it but don’t know how, so make insane demands like professionalising everything without the money or resources.
“The other quarter have the ideas and are trying to set up a good future for Portuguese rugby.”
The rise of tier two talent in leagues such as the French Top 14 and Pro D2, as well as the emergence of the Rugby Europe Super Cup, Super Rugby Americas, and the United States’ Major League Rugby, have all helped to nurture key players for these minnow nations.
Japan’s recent tier one status is a clear sign that some sides have been able to bridge this gulf, although it does skew these results. Their defeats of both Ireland and Scotland in 2019 suggests that they were perhaps deserving of a status upgrade sooner.
The removal of Japan’s results from these figures highlights this progression with the points difference between the tiers at the 2019 tournament increasing slightly as a result.
However, the Brave Blossoms’ relative weakness compared to their fellow tier one nations is obvious. Taking away their results from the 2023 statistics grows the difference by 1.69 points
Having reached the knock-out stage of this year’s World Cup, it is hardly surprising that Fiji have been rumoured to be joining the Rugby Championship.
Their meteoric rise is comparable to Japan’s. So long as World Rugby and the Fiji Rugby Union properly support and nurture the side, they will close the gap.
Where some nations have grown in strength, others have fallen – the most notable example being Romania. Conceding an average difference of 36.33 points to tier one opposition in 2011, and 23.67 in 2015, The Oaks were essentially disqualified from qualifying for the 2019 tournament.
Qualifying for 2023 following Spain’s disqualification, Romania lost their matches by a staggering 78 points on average. Other sides that have dropped in quality include the United States and Canada – both of whom failed to even qualify this year.
In contrast, the emergence of nations such as Portugal and Chile show that there is a crop of tier two sides that are growing in strength.
Closing the gap between the tiers is a case-by-case matter, where the likes of Japan and Fiji are showing that they have seriously improved, Romania, the United States, and Canada are examples of decline.
Despite this, there is no doubt that the overall quality of rugby played by tier two nations has improved. It should be remembered that rugby professionalised less than 30 years ago – the top sides are getting better as well.
The proposed ‘world league’, while lucrative for the world’s top sides, will only increase the gap between the tiers. A lack of exposure will stagnate tier two sides, making it increasingly difficult for these sides to grow and generate interest for the sport within their own nation.
The creation of professional leagues in second tier nations such as the Rugby Europe Super Cup and Super Rugby Americas, as well as the formation of the Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika franchises in Super Rugby Pacific, will hopefully nurture the game and create a future where tier two sides can become more competitive at future World Cups.
