Who Will Replace Ronaldo at Manchester United?
Cristiano Ronaldo has terminated his contract at Manchester United after his sensational interview with Piers Morgan surfaced.
The Portuguese talisman supposedly feels ‘betrayed’ by the club where he won his first Champions League and Ballon D’or and stated that ‘he does not have respect’ for manager Erik ten Hag.
United are already lacking depth up front and CR7’s departure leaves the Red Devils with only Marcus Rashford and the injury-prone Anthony Martial as attacking options.
So, who are they linked with, and who are they most likely to bring in as a replacement?
Who are Manchester United linked with?
As is the norm with Manchester United, they have been linked with every player available. However, three options rise to the forefront of the conversation.
They are Victor Osimhen, Lautaro Martinez and Dusan Vlahovic.
All three fit the ‘Erik ten Hag football profile’, although in slightly different ways, as well as being young and prolific. They are also all playing in Serie A, making a statistical comparison between them more relevant.
The similarities don’t stop at play style. All three strikers have signed new contracts relatively recently running until 2025 in Osimhen’s case, and until 2026 for the other two.
United will have to break the bank to sign any of the three because of the contract situation, and they may be forced into a deal in January because of the lack of depth upfront.
This is despite reports that surfaced in the Manchester Evening News in September that suggested the Red Devils January transfer budget was set to be slashed as a result of their liberal summer spending.
What is Erik ten Hag looking for in his new striker?
Although he has used multiple different player profiles in this position throughout his managerial career, Ten Hag’s forwards tend to be asked to do three key things:
Link the midfield and the attack, press effectively, and obviously, score goals.
Martial’s performance against Fulham presented some great examples of how the striker should play in the Red Devil’s current system. This is most obvious from the first goal.
As seen in the screenshot Martial drops deep to get the ball which creates space for Rashford to run at the defensive line, causing Fulham to stretch.
This then allows Bruno Fernandes to make a free run into the box from deep, and the stretched defence gives Martial time and space to play him in.
After which he squares it to Christian Eriksen who is free at the back post to slot home.
Credit: Sky Sports edited by Alex Reed.
The ability to pass the ball is key to a ‘Ten Hag style’ striker. Even with taller, less mobile, players he has used up front, such as Sebastian Haller last season and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar before him, the Dutch manager requires his forwards to bring others into play by progressing the ball.
This will not change at Manchester United with goal-scoring wingers such as Antony and Rashford now at his disposal.
The pressing element tends to be more of a luxury than a necessity, as modern football teams do not necessarily have to have their striker leading their press.
For example, Leeds press very effectively and yet most of their pressing actions are led by Brendan Aaronson who is an attacking midfielder. Although in a Premier League that is only getting more and more intense, United would do well not to undervalue this aspect of the game when looking for a striker.
Who should the Red Devils sign, looking at the statistics and their individual play style?
This table shows a selection of statistics for Manchester United’s targets, as well as Anthony Martial. As established, ETH wants his strikers to press effectively, link up with the midfield and score goals.
On the face of it, Martinez seems like the best fit. The Argentinian leads the four in shot-creating actions with 2.91, showing that he is the most effective at linking the play.
This is a result of Inter Milan’s two-striker system, where Martinez is often asked to drop deep and progress the play up to Edin Dzeko. The similarity between his role at Inter and his possible role at Old Trafford may make it easier for him to slot into the squad than the other two.
Moreover, very few of Osimhen and Vlahovic’s shot-creating actions occur from passing the ball. Osimhen almost always creates his own chances from his impressive dribbling and pace and Vlahovic tends to shoot from long range.
Martinez is also the by far the best presser of the four, leading the interceptions and tackles per 90 by 0.8. Although this stat is not a holistic representation of how well a player presses, and it would not surprise me if Osimhen was as effective in Manchester United’s pressing scheme due to his outstanding raw pace.
Where Martinez falls short is in goal scoring. Osimhen has the best record with 0.71 goals per 90 and Vlahovic follows him with 0.6 goals per 90. He also has the lowest xG differential of the four, meaning the other strikers convert difficult chances more often than Martinez.
Martinez’s differential is not bad, after all, he still converts more opportunities than an average player would. However, both Osimhen’s and Vlahovic’s numbers suggest that they are two of the best finishers in Europe.
Both strikers are outperforming their xG by 0.1 goals per 90 which means they regularly convert chances that an average player wouldn’t.
An important thing to point out here is that overperforming an xG by 0.1 is in the ‘sustainable’ range. This means both players aren’t just in a rich vein of form that is about to end, they can carry on finishing these difficult chances because of their obvious quality.
Where Osimhen sets himself apart is through his superior athletic ability. Napoli’s striker has burning pace, which is something that defences cannot account for, and his ability to run beyond defenders is key to Gli Azzuri’s performance in Serie A.
You could even make a very well-supported argument that Luciano Spaletti’s Napoli side is the best team in Europe right now, and this is in no small part because of Osimhen’s speed and finishing.
Conversely, Vlahovic is the best ball striker of the three. The Serbian forward regularly scores from range, including two impressive direct free-kick goals already this season. He also has a much higher shot on target % than the other forwards at 44.2%, in comparison with Martinez’s 38.7% and Osimhen’s 32.1%.
The Juventus striker is probably the worst system fit, however, because his passing numbers are very poor in comparison to the other two. Of course, this element of his game can develop, but in Turin, the forward is rarely asked to link the play which may make it more difficult for him to adapt to Manchester United.
Who will United Sign?
Ultimately, all three of these players would probably slot straight into the Manchester United starting XI and do well as they are arguably the three best young strikers in Europe right now.
However, for me, Victor Osimhen would be the number one choice. The Nigerian would be the most expensive signing by quite some way with reports estimating he would ‘cost no less than £100 million’, however, the Red Devils have shown that they are willing to spend that amount on the right player as we can see from the Antony signing in September.
The Napoli man has the highest ceiling due to his outstanding pace and strength, and on form, is the second-best forward in Europe right now behind Erling Haaland. His passing game still has room to grow, however, if his form continues at the same level this season, Osimhen may become a prospect that is too good to pass up on for Erik ten Hag.
The price tag may put a dampener on any deal, however, which could also be an issue with Lautaro Martinez due to his importance to Inter Milan and the length of his contract. As previously mentioned the Argentinian is the best fit in terms of play style, however, he is 25, making him the oldest of the three.
This means the most likely deal to happen is probably Vlahovic. The Serbian is part of a faltering Juventus team, which will probably make the deal easier to complete as there are suggestions in the Italian media that the striker is not happy in Turin.
Manager Maximiliano Allegri has been accused of ‘ruining’ one of the best young players in the world, and because of Juve’s poor performances they may struggle to hang on Vlahovic should the Red Devils come calling.
Manchester United clearly have some work to do in the transfer market, and with January just around the corner, we will have to wait and see what happens.
If you enjoyed this article read more about the Ronaldo story here
